Will House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh Face a Credible Challenger... Fowler's Fearless Update Exclusively Here on Family Action News.

In this issue of Family Action News (FAN):

Will the House Speaker Election be as dramatic as in the Senate?
Will incumbent speaker, Jimmy Naifeh, face a challenge?
Unseating Speaker Naifeh is a complex proposition.
Would Republican Leader, Rep. Jason Mumpower, be willing to lead a coalition effort?
Is the Republican Caucus "conservative, and bent on becoming the majority" or will it "moderate" and take what it can get as a minority party?
Is there any talk of a "coalition" to unseat Speaker Naifeh?
Fowler's fearless prediction.

Will the House Speaker election be as dramatic as in the Senate?

Tomorrow the House and Senate will elect a Speaker for their respective chambers. As I said last week, these elections are very important as the Speakers get to decide who sits on what committee, and the composition of the Committees is a harbinger of how "family-friendly" the Session will be. Last week I shared my prediction that Speaker Wilder's 35 year reign as Senate Speaker will come to an end. If so, that will be most dramatic and will change the political landscape in the Senate and, of necessity, in the General Assembly. But could there be such drama in the House Speaker election?

Will incumbent Speaker, Jimmy Naifeh, face a challenge?

Representative Jimmy Niafeh (D-Covington) is the current Speaker of the House, holding that position consecutively longer than any other Speaker in State history. I think it would be more than fair to say "he holds the reins of the House pretty tightly." And his support for the income tax in years past and his opposition to pro-life legislation are renowned in conservative circles. But there have been rumblings in the last couple of years.

The rumblings started after the income tax wars, when Republicans got up enough gumption to nominate their own candidate for Speaker. The Republicans knew they didn't have the votes, but there were too many conservative Republicans who just could not continue to vote for Naifeh. Diane Black, who is now the Senator for the 18th District, was willing to be the proverbial guinea pig.

Then, two years ago, Representative Frank Buck (D-Dowelltown), who Chaired the House Judiciary Committee, became the focus of an attempt to put together a coalition of disgruntled Democrats and tired-of-Naifeh Republicans. Together Republicans and Democrats could not come up with enough legislators willing to risk Naifeh's ire – but they did raise his ire enough that Chairman Buck is now just Representative Buck!

Will there be a challenger this year who might have a shot at 50 votes (there are 99 House members, so 50 votes would be needed)?

Unseating Speaker Naifeh is a complex proposition.

There are several considerations that come into play if someone is to successfully run against Speaker Niafeh. And it's complex.

First, every Democrat knows that to try to replace Speaker Naifeh and fail is a free ticket into his legislative Doghouse. And those who would support a Speaker wannabe know that their support, if found out, would send them to the Legislative Doghouse too. A couple of years ago, so many Democrats were in the doghouse, Speaker Naifeh actually had to have a freshman legislator chair a subcommittee!

Second, it's hard to get enough Republicans willing to "rock the boat" in order to give a Democratic Challenger enough overall votes to constitute a majority. But, it's not just a matter of whether there are enough Republicans who have the "courage" to oppose Speaker Naifeh. I think the past few years have made it clear that there are some Republicans loyal to Speaker Naifeh for reasons upon which your are free to speculate.

But, disregarding the internal challenge to the Republican caucus created by those loyal to Speaker Naifeh, there are hurdles to overcome even among those who do not like Speaker Naifeh. There are some Republicans who would love to see a different Speaker. But they do not want to compromise the caucus' ability to turn the partisan tables on the Democrats if the Republicans ever get in control.

Those in this camp point to the Senate. In their minds, Republican Senators were never willing to offer their own Speaker nominee because Speaker Wilder was "good to Republicans" and a more partisan alternative would have made their service "less pleasant" shall we say. But, as they predicted, that loyalty over time resulted in some Republican Senators voting to keep Speaker Wilder in power even after the Republicans had a majority. It's human nature - it is hard to vote against someone who for years has treated you better than the "other person" would have treated you. So, some conservative House Republicans feel that such ingratiation to a non-Naifeh Speaker, coupled with the Republicans already loyal to Speaker Naifeh, would be too much to overcome when the Republicans eventually do get the majority. And, they say, "if the ‘replacement' Democratic Speaker isn't going to treat us any better than the current Speaker, what's the point?"

Would Republican Leader, Rep. Jason Mumpower, be willing to lead a coalition effort?

Interestingly, the current Republican Leader, Jason Mumpower (R-Bristol who has now said publicly that he will "work with Naifeh" was historically one of the Republican House members most critical of the Republican "alliance" in the Senate. But his recent election as Republican Leader, defeating last year's Republican Leader, Representative Bill Dunn (R-Knoxville), has left some wondering what kind of leadership Rep. Mumpower will provide.

Is the Republican Caucus "conservative, and bent on becoming the majority" or will it "moderate" and take what it can get as a minority party?

When Rep. Tre Hargett stepped down as Republican Leader in 2005, conservatives pushed for Rep. Dunn over Rep. Mumpower, both of whom eventually withdrew (Rep. Casada is now the Caucus leader). Rep Dunn was pushed for leader because conservatives believed he would stand his ground with Speaker Naifeh, which he did, even according to his critics. But Rep. Dunn's defeat as Leader has left some wondering aloud what kind of leadership the Republican caucus wanted and what kind of leadership he will provide. There was credible talk that Speaker Naifeh preferred Representative Mumpower for Leader over Representative Dunn. But, the Caucus did elect as Caucus Leader Glen Casada who is known to be one of the more aggressive Republicans anxious for a Republican majority. This seeming difference in personalities and methodologies has left some perplexed as to where the caucus stands philosophically. I guess time will tell.

Is there any talk of a "coalition" to unseat Speaker Naifeh?

Coming up with the "coalition" votes to topple Speaker Naifeh is not likely. But there are some Democrats who have no love lost for Speaker Naifeh and presumably they think there are others chafing under his leadership style who, given a good alternative, would support another Speaker. In fact, talk around the Hill indicates that some Democrats are interested in seeing if enough votes might coalesce around Rep. Gary Odom (D-Nashville), newly elected Democratic Leader. Rep. Odom has not said he would be willing to run or even that he's considering it, but a majority of his colleagues did vote for him to be the second ranking Democrat in the House behind Speaker Naifeh.

It may be that Representative Odom has no interest. But, it also may be that he would rather have others do some spade work first and keep his hands clean to avoid retribution of some kind. But unlike Representative Buck and others before him, Speaker Niafeh cannot, on his own, remove Representative Odom as Democratic Leader.

Regardless of whether Rep. Odom is interested or willing, the word still is that some Democrats were going to make a few calls this past week to gauge interest within their caucus and then get back to the Republicans to see what they could come up with. I don't think the legislators making the calls would risk being found out unless they really believed Representative Odom would be willing to run. But there is also talk that Representative Mumpower would run for Speaker for sure if a challenge to Speaker Naifeh looks likely with help from within his own party. The alleged reason? It would make it hard for Republicans to vote for a Democrat if there is a Republican running.

Fowler's Fearless Prediction.

Like betting on Florida in football until Tennessee can prove it can win, my thought is that, come Tuesday afternoon, Speaker Naifeh will be given the opportunity to extend his record as the longest serving Speaker in the House by another two years and all of this speculation and backroom daydreaming of Naifeh opponents will amount to nothing more than wishful thinking.

But I also think the House is where the Senate was for the last couple of years. In the Senate there was a growing number of legislators sensing the need for a change. Already there is a near majority, if not an actual majority, of House members who do not want Speaker Naifeh to be Speaker. But fortunately for him and his supporters, until that majority can find some way to come together, Representative Naifeh will be Speaker.