In this issue:

Bill Filing Deadline Approaches
Governor proposes new spending.
Governor proposes new tax.
Governor takes spending proposal for a "spin."
The "No Spin" zone take on the spin.
Will the legislature take a "nutty" approach to the Governor's proposals?
Will the new tobacco tax money just go up in smoke?
Campfield to the rescue.
Bottom line.
What else is cooking?

Now that all the preliminary skirmishes surrounding the election of the House and Senate are over, the real battles of ideas begin in earnest this week. On Monday, the Governor gave his "State of the State" speech to a joint convention of the House and Senate. And Legislators will begin in earnest to get their bills prepared and filed. And lobbyist will finish lining up the legislators they want to sponsor the bills in which their clients have an interest.

Bill Filing Deadline Approaches

Unlike in DC, legislators in Nashville have a deadline for filing bills. After February 15th, legislators can file a bill, but they cannot ask for it to be heard in a standing committee without getting "permission." For example, in the Senate, bills filed after the 15th are sent to a "Delayed Bills Committee," composed of the Speaker and the Republican and Democratic Leader. All three must all agree to "let the bill out" of their "Committee" before it can be scheduled for a substantive hearing before a standing Committee. Perhaps if Congress could be disciplined enough to plan their legislative agenda ahead of time, we’d get better, more thoughtful stuff... Ah, never mind... just daydreaming!

Governor proposes new spending.

The Governor’s state of the state speech produced several proposals that would increase state spending on education by well over $100 million His proposals were each met with applause and general enthusiasm. But, alas, he said there was not enough current revenue to pay for any of them.

Governor proposes new tax.

Now this might seem like a problem for a family with a set income, but it’s not a problem for the governor. All he had to do was find a tax that everyone wants to increase which, as the last four years of the Sundquist administration taught us, is not that hard. .... Not! But the Governor hopes he has found one by tripling the tobacco tax.

But, alas again, his proposal was not met with the same enthusiasm as his proposals to increase spending. In fact, the silence was, in comparison, very deafening. Most legislators don’t like tax increases .... and they don’t like irritating The Farm Bureau unnecessarily, the staunch defender of the tobacco farmer.

Governor takes spending proposal for a "spin."

But in a form that would make the political spin miesters in DC proud, the Governor explained that raising a tax to pay for new, increased spending was not "expanding the size of government," but "living within our means." His exact words were, "I am committed to the discipline of living within our means even if it means tough cutting..." Only in government could "living within" one’s means be interpreted to mean expenditures in excess current income covered by a new tax.

The "No Spin" zone take on the spin.

What the Governor was really saying (I think) was our state can keep doing what it is doing within the revenue we have or it can do something "more" if you legislators are willing to vote for more money. The analogy the Governor gave was this: the state can become a better place in the same way you can get to the top of an oak tree - either you can climb it with all the attendant risks or you could sit on an acorn and wait for it to grow. He challenged the legislature not to take the "nutty" approach to improvement in education, but to climb to the top via his tobacco "tree" tax increase.

Will the legislature take a "nutty" approach to the Governor’s proposals?

The Governor rightly noted that it is "nutty" to keep doing what one is doing and yet expect different results. As he said, different results require different approaches. So, the big question is, "what is the ‘thing’ we are doing in education that we should stop doing?" Some, no doubt, will say that the "thing" we should stop "doing "is spending too little money on education. Others would says that "doing" education the "way" we are doing it is what we need to stop doing - try charter schools, vouchers, merit pay, etc, etc. The question is whether the reason government education doesn't do better is the lack of money or the way we "do" government education in the first place. If it's the former, then the answer is "more money." If it’s the later, then spending more to do the same thing will produce the same thing at a great cost to taxpayers - not a good result and, using the Governor’s analogy, sort of "nutty."

Raising standards - the Governor’s solution - is great, but standards not enforced or with no consequences are meaningless. Preschooler’s quickly learn if mom really means it when she says, "Come to dinner," and by grade school and high school kids are even more discerning about whether adults mean what they say. Will we have a higher standard with a consequence or just a higher standard on paper?

Will the new tobacco tax money just go up in smoke?

One legislator commented to me that previous efforts to increase the tobacco tax to pay for increased TennCare costs were not wise as it was using a declining source of revenue - increased tobacco tax leads to less smoking so it goes - to pay for recurring expenses. That is true, and we saw the problems with doing that during the Sundquist Administration. But are not the Governor’s education proposals to be paid for from the tobacco money not also recurring expenses? If, in time, the tobacco revenue "goes up in smoke" what’s left to pay for the increased, recurring education expenses?

Campfield to the rescue.

Rep. Stacy Campfield (R-Knoxville), who did not endear himself to the Democratic leadership two years with his "inside the Robertson Parkway" blog, offered a way to "solve" the problem of a declining sales tax source - tax pornography at a higher rate instead! Certainly this multi-billion dollar business is showing no signs of slowing down, especially when people make fun of the serious proposal by Sen. Doug Jackson (D-Dickson) to restrict the airing of offensive commercials like "Girls Gone Wild." Laughing at his effort to restrict such commercials, as one major media outlet did, reminds me of CS Lewis’ great observation about our culture’s scorn of those believe in moral absolutes, "In a sort of ghastly simplicity, we remove the organ and demand the function. ... We laugh at honor and are shocked to find traitors in our midst We castrate and bid the geldings be fruitful. " So after the "enlightened" finish laughing at Senator Jackson’s bill, perhaps they will take a minute and ponder why pornography is everywhere, addictions are destroying families, and women are degradingly "objectified" by far too many in our society.

Of course, the response will be "that’s unconstitutional" and maybe that’s what our court’s would say, but the "law" defers to "community standards." What will our "communities’" standards be? I, for one, have not seen much "redeeming social value" in a "Girls Gone Wild" commercial, have you? Hard to imagine that the video itself contains a lot of socially redeeming "speech."

Bottom line.

Should be fun to watch: legislators averse to tax increases, yet having to decide between a tax increase and increased education funding, a second term Governor with no re-election to worry about, big tobacco, and health care. And, this will be a big test for Republicans. What will they do with their new-found power. They say they want a "world-class" educational system, but they generally stand, except in Washington, for less government and holding the line on taxes. One thing is clear, if united, they hold the fate of the Governor’s proposals in their hands. Both Chambers must pass his proposals and with only 16 of 33 Senators being Democrats, the Governor must keep all his own "teammates" on his side and pick off at least one Republican. But in years past, Republicans have touted vouchers, at least for kids in "bad" schools, and a better charter school law, merit pay, modifications to tenure, etc. Will Republicans demonstrate the mettle to press the governor for substantive reforms to state-run schools or will the cower and drawback from meaningful debate on this important issue. I, for one, am happy with my new role as political prognosticator on this one, but I trust someone steps up to the plate to challenge the idea that money alone is the answer if we want different and better results.

What else is cooking?

On the legislative front, things will be a bit slow the next week or so as bills are being filed. The Legislature actually starting to debate bills and it is a little bit like playing the Super Bowl: there are two weeks of a bunch of "stuff" before anybody is really ready to start playing the "game." So, in the interim, we will share with you some of the "agenda items" that Family Action of Tennessee will be pushing this year. While they are not all ready for general public consumption, you can get a sneak peak at some of them by clicking on the "legislation" tab at www.factn.org.