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David Fowler
President
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March 4, 2009
With Governor Bredesen’s service as Governor term-limited, three Republicans have already announced their plans to run for the open Gubernatorial post. Now a fourth has joined the race, and it will make things even more interesting.
At a Republican Party Lincoln Day dinner last week, Lt. Governor and Sullivan County state Senator Ron Ramsey announced his bid for Governor in 2010. His entrance into the race will certainly have an impact on the other candidates and their races.
Of the candidates now in the race for the Republican nomination—Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, Third District Congressman Zach Wamp, and Shelby County Attorney General Bill Gibbons—none can deny that Lt. Governor Ramsey knows state government and state legislative politics and practices the best. His entrance into the race will make the other candidates address what about their previous non-state level experience makes them a better potential Governor than Lt. Governor Ramsey. Recent years have produced Governors with Congressional and Mayoral backgrounds, but my sense is that neither is held in the same regard among legislators as the last Governor who came from among their ranks, Governor Ned Ray McWherter. In tough times, having hands-on knowledge and experience with state government along with knowledge of and relationships with the very people who will have ultimate say over a Governor’s policy proposals is an advantage. And, no doubt, Lt. Governor Ramsey will tout it at every opportunity.
On the other hand, his entrance into the race may have given Shelby County Attorney General Gibbon's race a bit of a boost as there are now three east Tennesseans to divvy up the strong east Tennessee Republican primary vote. This allows him to argue to prospective donors that if he can win big among west Tennessee Republicans, a substantial portion of whom live in his home county, and hold his own among middle Tennessee Republicans, he might win. But just competing strongly in two media markets will require a good amount of money since the other candidates can raise enough to drown him out.
And, no doubt, money will be a big factor. Money isn’t described as the “mother’s milk of politics” for no reason. While hard work and personality are important, it cannot overcome an insufficiency of money. Without certain minimum levels of funding, determined by the nature of the election, size of the district, and the amount of money your opponents will have, you really can’t get anywhere. And at least a couple of million may be needed to get out of a statewide primary.
If “milk” is the analogy, then Mayor Haslam doesn’t just have a full gallon, he owns the cow. But owning the “cow” does not a victory make. All politicians know that regardless of how much personal money you can put into a race to buy advertising and campaign staffing, it does not always translate into a victory. Phil Bredesen wrote large personal checks in his race against Governor Sundquist in 1994 and lost; the second time around he didn’t, and he won. People must buy into a candidate’s race, and their contributions are the way they “buy in.”
Still, Mayor Haslam has somewhat of an advantage in raising money in that he and his family have raised money for many other Tennessee political candidates and from across the state. Their contacts with potential donors around the state will certainly be tapped.
But Congressman Wamp is no stranger to raising money; raising money is a full-time job for any person in Congress. And Congressman Wamp has some wealthy Chattanoogans in his corner like multimillionaire John Thornton, whose recent fundraiser for the Congressman brought in several hundred thousand dollars.
But Lt. Governor Ramsey is no stranger to fundraising either, having raised large sums of money for the state Republican Party over the years through his position as Senate Republican Caucus Chair, Senate Majority Leader and now Lt. Governor. In those positions he has raised money from many of the same Republicans that the other three candidates will be calling on. And those donors will know that he did as much as anyone and more than most in bringing about a Republican majority in the state Senate four years ago and in growing that majority in the last election cycle. He was willing to raise money to beat incumbent Senate Democrats and campaign against them, something that many Republicans, comfortable with being the minority and not wanting to jeopardize their own political standing, would not do. And those regular Republican Party donors will also know that Lt. Governor Ramsey knows more about state government operations than any of the other three.
And that is probably why he entered the race now. Because he is a sitting Senator, Lt. Governor Ramsey is prohibited from raising funds for his campaign until the end of Session or June 1, whichever date occurs first. That is a disadvantage that, no doubt, he hopes to neutralize by letting potential donors to the other candidates know that he is an option for the contribution dollars.
Of course, there is no guarantee that we have seen the last entrant into the Republican Gubernatorial primary. For the same reasons that Shelby County Attorney General Gibbons may welcome a third east Tennessee candidate, others who do not live in east Tennessee and who have had the Governor’s office in the back of their minds (maybe even the forefront) might decide to get in. Representative Beth Harwell, who had a successful tenure as Republican Party Chairman, lives in Nashville, and represents the wealthy Republican-dominated Bell Meade area, has thrown out the possibility. And Congressman Marsha Blackburn, who lives in wealthy Williamson County and represents the Republican portion of Shelby County, is thought to have had an eye on the Governor’s office since she first ran for the state Senate. The entry of either of these middle Tennessee women would most likely doom the dark horse candidacy of General Gibbons.
So hang on to your wallets; the candidates are a coming.
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